This 12-page paper by Harry Jones for the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) looks at how to monitor and evaluate activities that aim to influence policy. A significant part of international development work revolves around influencing policy. However, policy change is a very tricky process that is shaped by a range of interacting forces. This makes monitoring and evaluation (M&E) particularly challenging in this context, but nonetheless it is a key tool.

Luckily, there are a number of frameworks and approaches to help overcome these, the majority of which will involve developing a ‘theory of change’ (ToC).

A ToC is basically a model of how the policy influencing activities are pictured to result in the desired changes in policy. Developing one as early as possible will vastly improve projects,  accountability and reporting. There are three common types of ToC:

Causal chain. Much like the name suggests, these ToCs involve a set of logical or causal connections; usually a set of inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and impact.The downside to this is that the hypotheses about the causal links themselves can remain implicit rather than explicit. 

Dimensions of influence. This approach looks at the different dimensions of change. There are a set of areas of outcomes, each presumed to be important to enabling policy influence. Each area can then be monitored or evaluated.

Actor-centred theories. Some frameworks focus on the change in behaviour of different actors. Angling ToCs towards actors, who are seen as the key driving force for change, provides a clear focus for M&E activities. One familiar framework that works in this way is Outcome Mapping.

The report recommends the following outcomes and tools to use for the M&E of different influencing approaches.

Evidence and advice. In some cases, policy influencing is done mainly using evidence and analysis. Activities and tools that evaluate output, uptake and use are especially important here  – but they may not always be reliable.

Public campaigns and advocacy. Policy influencing sometimes targets a large number of individuals, or political debates. Here, it is most important to monitor and understand the target audiences, and in many cases the media as well.

Lobbying approaches. ToCs for this kind of influencing activity are based on actors – their interactions with other actors, ideologies, interests, and alignment with the programme goals. All this is necessary to keep measuring and evaluating influence – but the nature of lobbying means  expectations about M&E have to be adjusted to the context.

To conclude, there are many ways to overcome the challenges of proving policy impact, even if it is impossible to address them all. Developing a ToC and using well-known tools will make M&E processes much more valuable.