For anyone involved in research, the question of impact is central. Proving that our research has had an impact on broader society is hard enough; but can we also predict the outcomes of our work beyond academia? A recent study by Ohid Yaqub et.al drawing on data from the UK’s Research Excellence Framework (REF), sheds light on this by comparing initial impact plans with the impact eventually claimed.

The research reveals a significant degree of predictability in research impact. Analysing thousands of research projects linked to REF impact case studies, the authors found that in 76% of cases, there was alignment between the anticipated impact at the funding stage and the actual impact reported later. This is encouraging, suggesting that researchers’ initial visions of their work’s broader effects often do materialise.

However, the authors point out that unpredictability is still a key aspect of research. A big portion of impact cases demonstrated outcomes that strayed from the initial plans, highlighting the serendipitous nature of research and its diverse pathways to impact.

Co-production – which is an active collaboration with end-users – is highlighted as another as a common feature in impactful research, present in over half of the cases. Co-production remains a valuable mechanism for aligning research with real-world needs and creating predictable impact.

Key Takeaways for Maximising Impact:

1. Your Initial Plans Matter – The impact you expect at the start of your project is often a good indicator of what will happen. So, take the time to think carefully about how your work could be used in the real world.
2. Expect the Unexpected – Not all impact follows the original plan. Many research projects led to valuable but unexpected outcomes, reminding us that discoveries can take surprising directions.
3. Work with End-Users – More than half of the most impactful research projects involved co-production, meaning researchers actively collaborated with policymakers, businesses, or communities. Engaging with people who might use your research makes it more likely to have a real-world effect.
4. Plan for Both Predictable and Unpredictable Impact – While structured planning helps, don’t ignore the role of serendipity. Being open to new opportunities and flexible in applying your research can lead to unexpected benefits.

What This Means for Researchers

Funding bodies and institutions increasingly care about research impact. By having a clear vision, engaging with stakeholders, and staying adaptable, you can increase the chances that your work will have a meaningful effect beyond academia.

Thanks to Eleanor MacPherson PhD Knowledge Exchange Lead at the College of Social Sciences for drawing our attention to this article. Do you have something you think deserves a wider audience? Let us know!